Crop yields under climate change

16th Apr 2014

NERC scientists have contributed to a comprehensive summary of more than 1700 simulations of the impact of climate change on the yield of the major crops – rice, wheat and maize.


Key findings:

-without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming,

-crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7–15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize,

-although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.



A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. A. J. Challinor J. Watson D. B. Lobell S. M. Howden D. R. Smith N. Chhetri. Nature Climate Change (2014) 4, 287–291


Link to article (paywall)

Back to List »
Share |